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ICE

in the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Video credit: Dinesh Deokota
"Due to the climate change - the snow and glaciers in Himalaya are decreasing. It's all kind of foggy and black stones. We can't see white anymore. " ~ Gyalbu Tamang

Key findings

  • For global warming between 1.5°C to 2°C, by 2100 glaciers are set to lose 30%–50% of their volume compared with 2015.
  • For 3°C, between 55 and 75% will be gone.
  • For 4°C, between 70 and 80% will disappear.
  • Even in the larger glaciers of West Kunlun and Karakoram the remaining glacier area will be half what it is now.
  • There has been significant acceleration in glacier mass loss: from –0.17 m w.e. per year from 2000–2009 to –0.28 m w.e. per year from 2010–2019 (an increase of 65%).
  • The HKH has seen mean temperature rise of +0.28°C per decade between 1951 and 2020. The Tibetan Plateau, Amu Darya, and Brahmaputra basins and headwaters of the Mekong and Yangtze basins have had a temperature increase of up to +0.66°C per decade in places.
  • Southeast Tibet and Nyainqêntanglha regions show glacier mass loss of –0.78 ± 0.10 m w.e. per year for 2010–2019.
  • Snow cover extent will fall by between 1% and 26% for an average temperature rise between 1.1°C and 4°C.
  • Episodes of heavy snowfall are already increasing and predicted to become more frequent and intense; however the contribution of snowmelt to streamflow is expected to decrease under all climate scenarios.
Distribution of permafrost (in green) and glaciers (in blue) and summary statistics for glaciers and permafrost in the major river basins of the HKH.
Figure: Distribution of permafrost (in green) and glaciers (in blue) and summary statistics for glaciers and permafrost in the major river basins of the HKH.

Urgent appeal

  • Policy makers need to evaluate the effects a climate change is having on the cryosphere, especially glaciers, to better inform adaptation strategies.
  • Snowmelt, which underpins river run-off, will decrease in future and peak flow will shift, causing large variability between basins. These changes must be considered in infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods planning.
  • Changing permafrost carries potentially major risks for livelihoods and infrastructure, and needs much greater monitoring.

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